by Patrice ‘Pete’ Parsons, TXSES Executive Director
You’ve probably seen the headlines this past week from ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), including:
- “ERCOT warns of possible power emergency amid rising temperatures in Texas“
- “Texas’ electric grid is feeling the strain, and it’s not even all that hot yet;” and
- ERCOT Regional Planning Group’s announcement this month that ERCOT demand may double by 2030 (see ERCOT presentation slides).
It all comes down to a very simply concept — Supply and Demand.
When considering the problems ERCOT is having in trying to meet the growing demand for energy, it is time they took into consideration all possibilities. This includes not only demand, but all the options for supply.
Investors are developing solar power and storage at an unprecedented rate and the costs have dropped to the point that the technology is cheaper than coal as well as natural gas (see “Texas solar surpasses coal production for first time”). But intense demand could overwhelm all that new supply, and then some.
Demand hit 85 gigawatts last summer and ERCOT recently estimated that Texans would need 92 gigawatts of electricity to weather another Winter Storm Uri.
With an expected flood of demand from large loads, including data centers, electric vehicle fleets and much, much more coming online in Texas, demand will rise even higher and faster.
Without higher demand flexibility, the grid simply will not be able to keep up and Texans will face higher electricity bills and more blackouts.
If investor-owned utilities would take advantage of all the options available, including energy efficiency, demand response and incentivizing rooftop solar it would cost much less than new power plants needed to meet the demand that we will be facing. It would make the grid stronger and save Texans money.
Last year the legislature required the Public Utility Commission of Texas to pass a rule to reduce average residential load, but so far the PUC has ignored this legislative requirement, although they did recently hire a new director of energy efficiency. So, there is hope.
If we try to keep up by just building enough infrastructure, and dispatchable generation from gas plants to simultaneously cover peak electricity needs without considering the exploding demand, the grid will be one of the most expensive and least reliable in the world.
The good news could come from distributed solar power. Distributed solar’s ability to increase customer resiliency and predictability against the expected rise in the cost of electricity, will be vital as the state moves forward. And if storage is added, that reliability will increase several fold.