Amid a 51% decline year-over-year from 2016, this December GTM Research article reports that only 2,031 MW of solar was installed in the third-quarter of 2017. The weakness resulted from a variety of factors, most notably political uncertainty, rising equipment prices, a slowdown in maturing markets, and churn within residential installer rankings.
Is U.S. electricity generation from natural gas in permanent decline?
Much has been written about the disruption of coal and nuclear electricity production in the United States, but is natural gas the next existential casualty of less expensive renewable technologies? This December Clean Technica article proposes that electricity production fueled by natural gas reached a secular peak in September 2016 and will permanently decline in the United states, a harbinger for things to come on a global basis.
In this December pv magazine interview, Solar Foundation President and Executive Director Andrea Luecke discusses how solar is a perfect tool for emergency response to natural disasters and ultimately provides a smarter source of power that creates resilience and adaptation for communities over the long term.
The U.S. trade case just put $1 per watt solar pricing back out of reach
Unconvinced that federal government policy uncertainty has an affect on solar prices? This December GTM Research report finds that the average fixed-tilt utility-scale solar price has edged back above of the SunShot price target of $1 per watt, amid market turmoil surrounding the Section 201 solar trade petition. Although U.S. module prices increased from around 33 cents in the first quarter to 47 cents in the fourth quarter, it could have been worse, as balance-of-system costs declined.
Perhaps no single factor is driving the global exponential growth of solar and wind technologies as much as the continual reductions in cost, as pv magazine reports on this November Lazard study. Crystalline silicon utility-scale solar reached a global mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), falling 10% from 2016 to 2017.
International Trade Commission issues long-awaited recommendations for Trump’s consideration
Appropriate for Halloween, pv magazine reports the ITC Section 201 import recommendations on solar PV cells and modules. While the proscribed remedies are all over the map, all commissioners are recommending a combination of import restrictions with either tariffs or an import licensing fee. Bloomberg New Energy Finance characterized the proposals “workable” for the U.S. downstream industry.
Global solar forecasted to rise to 95 to 100 GW this year
As recently as August, solar installations were forecast to top out at 90 GW, growing from 74 GW in 2016. This October pv magazine article suggests solar will rise even further, due largely to the massive 52 GW China is expected to install, according to German analyst firm Bernreuter Research. The United States is way back in second place with 12.5 GW of new solar
Are residential solar systems worth it?
Although solar systems are good for the environment and provide a degree of utility independence, what ultimately matters is solar’s return-on-investment (ROI), including the amount of time the system will take to pay for itself — the payback period. The payback period and ROIs are as varied in the United States as the cities in them, as this October pv magazine analysis attests.
Tariff risk has caused module prices to increase, a phenomenon unique to the U.S.
With the outcome of the U.S. International Trade Commission’s coming vote on remedy recommendations in the landmark Section 201 trade case pending, this October GTM Research report analyses the current state of U.S. solar and what might happen if various levels of tariffs are enacted.
Solar industry steels for a tariff fight after ITC ruling
In late September, the U.S. International Trade Commission voted 4-0 to find cause for severe injury to a pair of U.S. solar manufacturers, Suniva and SolarWorld. The months-long investigation will now proceed to a hearing for potential remedies set for Oct. 3, after which the ITC will make a formal recommendation to the president.
Utility Industry perspective: solar trade protections do more harm than good
The Director of the Electric Reliability Coordinating Council (ERCC), a utility industry coalition, argues that new trade barriers will undercut the strength of the entire U.S. electricity system, according to this September GTM Research article. With the findings of the Suniva trade case before the ITC just days away, the U.S. solar industry anxiously awaits the result.
This September pv magazine article provides tremendously useful information on solar costs from 2010 to 2017, as compiled by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL). However, the dramatic price drops over this period stem mostly from the collapse in PV module prices, showing that soft costs remain a stubborn component of U.S. solar prices, which now account for two-thirds of total residential costs.
Looming tariff threat drives up U.S. solar panel prices and spurs hoarding, crimping panel supplies
Solar developers are suspending construction as the looming threat of U.S. import tariffs has driven up prices and reduced solar panel supplies, according to this September Renewable Energy World article. The crunch is an abrupt reversal for the U.S. solar industry, which six months ago was awash in inexpensive panels. Developers say prices have swelled by about 40 percent in the past four months.
U.S. solar delivers another strong quarter, but Suniva trade case looms large
The U.S. solar market grew 8% year-over-year with 2.4 GW installed in the second quarter, according to pv magazine coverage of the September GTM Research report. Growth was strong in the non-residential sectors while the residential solar market fell 8% from the same quarter last year. The impact of the Suniva trade case can already be seen in higher module prices during the quarter.
Customer-sited energy storage breaks record in second quarter 2017
According to this September GTM Research report, a record breaking 32 megawatt-hours of behind-the-meter storage capacity was deployed across the United States in the the second quarter. In total, 50.4 megawatt-hours of storage capacity was deployed, rising 6 percent from the same quarter last year.
Renewables and nuclear power generation end up in dead heat for first half of 2017
The U.S. Energy Information’s (EIA) Electric Power Monthly reports in August that renewable energy sources remain in a statistical dead heat with nuclear power for electricity generation through June 30, with each providing roughly 20 percent of the total. However, the trend line clearly favors a rapidly expanding market share for renewables, reports Renewable Energy World.
Analyst ups forecast for global solar growth this year
The August IHS Markit forecast significantly raises its solar installation expectations to 90 GW in 2017 from its April forecast of 79 GW, pv magazine reports. Due largely to the continuing installation boom in China, the global PV module supply chain may be nearing the upper end of its production capacity.
Solar eclipse to test grid reliability across the nation
MarketWatch reports that the August 21 solar eclipse will challenge grid operators with sizable and rapid solar energy generation losses and the whiplash effect of that energy returning to the grid as the eclipse runs its course. The Energy Information Administration said the eclipse will obscure the sunlight at some 1,900 utility-scale solar plants around the country, creating a balancing act for utilities.
EIA to begin including small-scale solar PV capacity and electricity production in its forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has begun including small-scale solar photovoltaics in its Short Term Energy Outlook for the first time. From April of this year to the end of 2018, EIA forecasts this typically “behind-the-meter” capacity will grow from 14.3 gigawatts to 21.9 gigawatts. In 2016, solar capacity in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors comprised 56, 36, and 8 percent, respectively.
In this July interview at the Intersolar North America trade show, pv magazine talks with visionary author Tony Seba about developments in the solar, battery and electric vehicle markets, and how the predictions that he made in his 2014 book Clean Disruption look three years later. Quick recap: it’s all happening sooner than anyone anticipated.
Leaked DOE draft report claims renewables are not a threat to grid reliability
According to a leaked draft obtained by Bloomberg, a long-awaited Department of Energy grid report indicates that wind and solar do not pose a threat to grid reliability and cheap natural gas is primarily responsible for undermining baseload resources such as nuclear and coal. This July Greentech Media article speculates that these excerpts may not make it into the final version of the study.
Utility-scale renewables top output from nuclear for first time since 1984
For the first time in more than 30 years, America’s nuclear plants have fallen behind wind farms, solar panels and other renewable energy suppliers as a source of electricity, reports Bloomberg in this July article. Supplies from wind and solar rose to a record, while heavy rains in the West boosted hydroelectric power.
McKinsey & Company reports recent price falls in lithium-ion technology, down to $230/kWh, has allowed storage to become a viable alternative to conventional power generators for commercial-scale PV owners. This June pv magazine article says McKinsey believes that in a matter of years households and business will be able to pair solar+storage with a small electrical generator and defect fully from grids.
Economic analysis predicts the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable
The Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2017 report, released June 15, predicts solar energy costs will drop an additional 66 percent and onshore wind energy by 47 percent by 2040, pv magazine reports. The forecast shows EV smart charging, small scale battery systems, and utility-scale storage will play a big part in smoothing out supply peaks and valleys caused by variable wind and solar generation.
U.S. utility scale solar breaks historic price barrier, falling below $1 per watt in Q1
For the first time, the average price of fixed-tilt, utility scale solar installed in the first quarter fell to $0.99 per watt, according to a report by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association. In this June article, pv magazine also notes price declines in both the residential and non-residential markets, with residential rooftop prices falling 2 percent to $2.84 per watt.
Residential solar market projected to decline 2.4 percent in 2017
After 16 straight years of growth, Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects the U.S. residential solar market will contract this year. In this June report, 2,263 MW of residential systems are expected, down from 2,319 MW in 2016. The decline is especially evident in California as utilities switch to less generous net-metering regimes. BNEF forecasts the U.S. residential market to rebound by almost 22 percent in 2018 amid potential headwinds.
U.S. residential solar market down 17 percent year-over-year
In spite of strong Texas growth, GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association report that the residential solar market declined in the first quarter compared to last year. Due to a severe year-over-year 31 percent contraction in California, growth in other states could not pick up all the slack according to this May pv magazine article.
California incentive program suggests storage costs are rapidly declining
“Californians sure love producing their own power” reports pv magazine in this article reporting on the first round of 2017 funding in the Self-Generating Incentive Program supported by ratepayers. Hundreds of storage projects received incentives in May and the average cost per watt fell to $2.55 from $3.33 in last year’s funding.
Solar system price drops between the first half of 2016 and the second half of 2016
Greentech Media reports EnergySage data showed a 6.25 percent decline in quoted price-per-watt of solar systems in the U.S. from the first half to the second half of 2016. This early May report suggests that as the industry matures, there is greater transparency than ever before in prices, enabling consumers to make more informed choices. Texas prices dropped 3.9 percent in the same period.
Market analysts predict continued global solar growth in 2017
In this April forecast, IHS Markit projects that global demand for PV will reach 79 GW in 2017, a 2 percent increase on 2016’s final installation figure of 78 GW. GTM Research is even more bullish in its prediction according to pv magazine, expecting to see 9.4 percent growth, and 85.4 GW installed by year end. In the U.S. market, IHS Markit predicts a 3 GW year over year decline in 2017.
Meister reports solar is creating jobs at a breathtaking rate
A March report by Meister Consultants Group indicates solar investments create roughly three times more direct and indirect jobs than comparable investments in fossil fuels, according to pv magazine. And unlike manufacturing jobs in other industries, solar jobs are inherently local, making it nearly impossible to outsource them. Texas could become the second-largest solar job market by 2020.
Utilities turning to strategic solar investments to enable new business models
Looking beyond simply contracting for new capacity, utilities are increasingly moving into the sector themselves, Utility Dive reports in this March article. Citing a report by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association, utilities dominated investment in 2016, a trend that’s expected to continue as utilities will provide two-thirds of the 13.2 GW of solar capacity forecasted for 2017
Moody’s predict corporate buyers will drive solar and wind demand
While the influence of state mandates wanes, large companies are increasing their renewables commitments, in part, for long-term visibility into their electrical costs. Moody’s Investors Service notes power purchase agreements with wind farms are now available for as low as $15/MWh and $35/MWh for solar. This March Renewable Energy World article reports the emergence of corporate buyers comes as states are meeting their renewable portfolio standards (RPS) targets.
First year-over-year decline in the 21st century predicted for U.S. solar in 2017
This March pv magazine article highlights the GTM Research and Solar Energy Industries Association estimate that the U.S. solar market will decline 10% in 2017 to 13.2 GW. The expected termination of the federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) drove a rush of solar development in 2016 to 14.8 GW, resulting in fewer utility scale projects to be built this year. GTM Research estimates that system prices fell 20% in 2016.
Residential solar customers increasingly prefer to buy rather than lease
In this March article, GTM Research predicts 2017 will be the first full year since 2011 in which the residential solar market will revert to its historical preference for purchase of solar systems rather than lease. Residential solar leases peaked in 2014 at 72 percent of the market, but that share has steadily declined since, flipping to only 47 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Battery storage costs coming down; financial institutions exploring opportunities
Low-cost storage has long been the “Holy Grail” of the solar and wind industries. Economic short-term storage enables power generated from intermittent sources to more reliably meet demand day and night. Renewable Energy World reported on February 22 that large-scale storage costs have declined 40 percent since 2014, which is attracting the interest of large financial institutions willing to invest capital.
2016 U.S. solar installations shatter record, growing 95% over 2015
In this February report, GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reveal over 14.6 GW of solar energy was installed in 2016. In an industry first, solar ranked as the No. 1 source of new electric generating capacity additions on an annual basis, accounting for 39 percent of new capacity across all fuel types.
Americans spend record low on energy in 2016, retail electricity prices fall 2.2 percent
The 2017 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook found that consumers spent less than 4 percent of average annual household income on energy in 2016, the lowest ever recorded, as reported in this February article in Scientific American. Energy efficiency, natural gas and renewable energy are benefiting consumers, businesses, and manufacturers, and have made traditional electricity fuels, namely coal and oil, increasingly less competitive.
National census shows solar employment increased 25%
The February release of the National Solar Jobs Census 2016 by The Solar Foundation found solar employment expanded by over 51,000 workers, a 25 percent jump from 2015. Growing much faster than the overall American economy, 1 out of 50 new jobs came from the solar industry. The total of 260,077 solar workers in 2016 nearly tripled the census released in 2010. The three states with the most solar jobs were California, Massachusetts and Texas, with Texas jobs growing 34 percent.
Community solar adoption soars
With 150 community solar programs in place or in development, a February report from GTM Research forecasts over 400 MW will be installed this year, doubling the 200 MW installed in 2016. The community solar market in 2017 will be largely defined by utilities scaling up pilot programs. With nearly 3 gigawatts of community solar in development, it is on track to become a 500 MW annual market by 2019.