This much-deserved fall-like weather is our reward for those brutal triple-digit months. Finally. And while we’re reveling in the moment, we’re already on high alert for winter and its unpredictable temperatures.
Source: NOAA
If it feels like there are more people than ever in your hometown, you’d be right. According to a recent U.S. Census Bureau report, nearly 1 million people have moved to Texas from another state or abroad since 2022, bringing Texas’ population to more than 30 million. That’s not a typo. While Harris County added the most residents between 2000-2022, Tarrant, Bexar, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Travis, Williamson, Montgomery, and Dallas counties did their part, too.
While those numbers might bring worrisome thoughts of more traffic, construction and crowds, we at TXSES are all smiles. We see those numbers as more eyes to see and ears to hear from us about the value, benefits and results of sound, favorable solar policies that are growing a strong distributed solar industry in Texas’ rapidly changing clean energy economy.
Infinite Power: Take Your Share of the Texas Sun is our response to unrelenting consumer demand for solar while addressing the unreliability of the Texas grid. This statewide educational campaign aims to double the amount of distributed solar in Texas by 2030.
Using EIA data and Google’s Project Sunroof, TXSES policy committee member Larry Howe and TXSES intern Ethan Miller estimate conservatively there are nearly 300,000 residential and commercial distributed solar rooftops in Texas. Infinite Power: Take Your Share of the Texas Sun represents a natural progression for TXSES in our nearly half-century of educating and raising awareness of the advantages of distributed solar in Texas. We’ll carry out the multi-faceted educational campaign via media, social media, events and one-on-one engagements with decision-makers, focusing on three target areas:
Policy: promoting solar policies that align with our mission for energy justice, equity, diversity and inclusion.
Workforce: ensuring that our clean energy workforce is well trained to quality, competency-based standards and trained by programs that teach the skills in demand by employers.
Outreach: helping communities streamline the solar permitting processes through Solar APP+; promoting Virtual Power Plants that contribute to enhanced grid resilience and compensation for consumers; advancing development of net zero subdivisions; and leveraging federal funds like the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, to bolster our statewide initiatives and strengthen our impact in the distributed solar sector.
It’s an ambitious goal to go from 300,000 to 600,000 distributed solar rooftops in seven years. It’s also nothing short of a unique opportunity to take advantage of the momentum so that every Texan is able to benefit from solar energy as part of an equitable, 100% clean energy future. Keep an ear and eye out!
Ethan Miller, TXSES Intern, and Larry Howe, Solar and Climate Solutions Advocate
It’s not hard to find estimates for utility-scale solar capacity in Texas; ERCOT regularly releases that information.1 What has been harder to find are estimates of distributed (rooftop) solar. Up until now, getting a realistic idea of how many buildings had rooftop systems was practically guesswork.
There are a few reasons for this:
Distributed solar can be metered or unmetered (and there are multiple metering techniques);
Distributed solar can be placed on residential, commercial and industrial buildings;
Reporting varies by utility provider (municipal, electric cooperative, competitive market, investor-owned); and
There is no singular reporting agency/organization.
Through the Texas Solar Energy Society, I connected with Larry Howe, who in his spare time was working on such an estimate. After meeting with him and reviewing his methodology and data sources, we devised a method to determine the volume of rooftop installations in the state.
For our analysis, we relied on scraping data from two main sources: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). For the latest numbers, we used ERCOT’s Load Profiling Profile Type Counts (last updated October 3, 2023), EIA’s Annual Electric Power Industry Report, Form EIA-861 (both for net-metered and non-net-metered, updated 2022 and 2021 for Austin Energy), and EIA’s Form EIA-861M (monthly, updated July 2023). [2][3][4]
Since ERCOT’s Load Profiles tracked the amount of distributed energy only in competitive (deregulated) regions of the state, we used the EIA-861 and EIA-861M to get installation counts for residential and commercial buildings in municipal and cooperative utilities. The biggest challenge, however, was that the EIA-861 only reported installation count for net-metered projects. The EIA-861M counts customers for residential and commercial. ERCOT had only an idea of how much MW capacity the non-net-metered generators were producing. To resolve this, I used Google’s Project Sunroof per roof system capacity of 12.3 kW DC.[5] It’s important to note that Project Sunroof is a tool designed to estimate maximum distributed capacity in the state. Because that 12.3 kW DC is a much larger system size than is typical, we believe our final estimate is likely conservative. Lastly, EIA data often included private utilities as well (those already reported in ERCOT numbers). We removed them to ensure we weren’t double-counting.
It’s important to disclose the limitations of our estimates.
As previously noted, we had to rely on Project Sunroof’s estimate of average project capacity. Additionally, not all data are dated for 2022. Because Austin Energy’s net-metered count didn’t appear in EIA’s 2022 data, (possibly because of the city’s use of Value-of-Solar in place of net-metering), we relied on data from 2021 which may be marginally outdated. Lastly, the data are incomplete. EIA doesn’t seem to report numbers for all municipal or cooperative utilities in the state, and ERCOT’s numbers are restricted to ERCOT’s area, so those serviced by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Southwest Power Pool, or Southeastern Electric Reliability Council have not been included.
With clean data, we tallied all the installations. As of today (October 19, 2023), we estimate the total number of rooftop solar installations in Texas to be ~294,817.86. To give a better idea of the scale, take the U.S. Census Bureau’s figure of 12,136,678 housing units in the state (as of 2022).[6] Using the numbers for residential installations only, it looks like 2.39% of all Texas residences have rooftop solar installed. For all buildings in the state, it is 2.31%. While that number might seem small, it’s impressive progress for a fledgling industry that didn’t even appear in the Solar Energy Industries Association count of annual solar installations until 2013.[7]
One decade in, we’ve made significant progress but there’s much more to do to enact sound distributed solar policies that will build a well-trained distributed solar energy workforce and mitigate impending grid disruptions and failures. Our newest initiative, Infinite Power: Take Your Share of the Texas Sun, is an ambitious statewide educational campaign intended to double the amount of distributed solar in Texas by 2030. Through a collaborative process with industry groups, business members, and solar homeowners alike, TXSES will lead that charge, intensifying consumer education and heightening awareness that distributed solar will support ambitious clean energy and carbon reduction goals, enhance the resilience and reliability of the electric grid and build a diverse, equitable, well-trained distributed solar workforce.
If you’re interested in getting involved with similar research or would like to access our data, please reach out to Ethan Miller (ethan@txses.org)
Sources:
“Annual Electric Power Industry Report, Form EIA-861 Detailed Data Files.” Electricity, 2022. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/.
“Estimated Rooftop Solar Potential of Texas.” Project Sunroof, June 2019. https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/data-explorer/place/ChIJSTKCCzZwQIYRPN4IGI8c6xY/.
“Profile Type Counts.” Load Profiling, October 3, 2023. https://www.ercot.com/mktinfo/loadprofile.
“Texas Solar.” Solar Energy Industries Association, 2023. https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/texas-solar.
“Texas.” QuickFacts, July 1, 2022. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/TX,US/EDU685221.
Vegas, Pablo, et al. “September 2023 Fact Sheet.” Electric Reliability Council of Texas, September 2023. https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/08/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet.pdf.
Statewide educational campaign aims to double the amount of distributed solar by 2030
November 2, 2023
Austin, TX – As the Texas distributed solar industry matures and diversifies, there is an increasing need for consumers to understand the benefits, separating fact from fiction and educating decision-makers on the critical importance of sound, favorable solar policies that will grow the industry and lay the foundation for building a strong diverse, distributed solar industry in Texas’ rapidly changing clean energy economy.
Since 1976, TXSES has been the single statewide organization advocating for a robust distributed solar energy industry in Texas. A membership-based organization, TXSES’s unique niche is its well-established local chapters in Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio. Its educational and outreach expertise has been key to raising awareness that distributed solar will support ambitious clean energy and carbon reduction goals and enhance the resilience and reliability of the electric grid, while building a diverse, equitable, well-trained distributed solar energy workforce.
“Over the past year, we’ve convened thought leaders in the distributed solar industry, educators, decision-makers and other stakeholders to get their input on the highest priorities that would enable every Texan to adopt solar energy as part of an equitable, 100% clean energy future,” says TXSES Executive Director Pete Parsons. “Given the unrelenting consumer demand for solar, while addressing the unreliability of the Texas grid, this statewide campaign represents a natural progression for TXSES in our nearly half-century of educating and raising awareness of the value and benefits of distributed solar in Texas.”
Using EIA data and Google’s Project Sunroof, TXSES policy committee member Larry Howe and TXSES intern Ethan Miller estimate conservatively there are nearly 300,000 residential and commercial distributed solar rooftops in Texas. This initiative proposes to double that within seven years.
“If growth in both demand and supply of Texas’ distributed solar sector is to continue in a safe and sustainable way, we must ensure that consumers, industry and policymakers are well-informed; that innovative and efficient business models thrive and a well-trained, quality workforce is responsive to both industry and community needs,” says Chair of TXSES Board of Directors Dr. Ariane L. Beck. “This is classic TXSES: providing straightforward educational distributed solar expertise to advance a secure, clean energy Texas.”
“Doing everything possible to ensure reliable power to the citizens of Texas cannot be over-emphasized,” says Texas State Representative Erin Zwiener. “The role of distributed solar is an important piece of that puzzle as it helps to reduce demand on the grid for everyone. As the only statewide organization that advocates for distributed solar, I am excited to learn that TXSES seeks to achieve this ambitious goal of doubling Texas’ distributed solar footprint. The impact of this initiative is a win-win for us all.”
By Steven Ùgalde Membership and Marketing Outreach Coordinator
As the Texas distributed solar industry continues to expand, TXSES is thrilled to witness proactive initiatives by providers like Bluebonnet Electric Cooperative. This past weekend, they hosted the Bluebonnet Energy Expo, and TXSES was prominently present. Executive Director Pete Parsons and I had the opportunity to educate visitors about solar energy and offer recommendations for reliable installers.
TXSES Executive Director Pete Parsons and Membership and Marketing Outreach Coordinator Steven Ùgalde at the 2023 Bluebonnet Energy Fair
This event served as a valuable networking opportunity, allowing us and installers to converge and share industry insights. TXSES business members, including Platinum Members Freedom Solar, Lighthouse Solar, Sunrun, Texas Solar Guys and Texas Solar Outfitters; Silver Business Members ADT Solar, Hoss Solar, Longhorn Solar and Texas Solar Power Company, had the chance to promote their services to an inquisitive audience.
Our team addressed queries about the Texas distributed solar industry and shed light on TXSES’s mission. Engaging with the public, conveying our purpose, and discussing the transformative impact of their contributions was an immensely rewarding experience. Interacting with like-minded individuals who share our passion for solar energy heightened the expo’s significance.
We took this opportunity to inform attendees that supporting TXSES leads to meaningful change in three key ways:
Building Resilient Communities: TXSES collaborates with local chapters to establish sustainable and inclusive clean energy hubs.
Fostering Diverse Clean Energy Talent: We champion job placement programs, partnering with organizations such as @greencareersdal, to create a diverse workforce in the clean energy sector.
Promoting Energy Independence: Through education, outreach, and engagement, we lay the groundwork for a solar-powered Texas. Additionally, we engage in policy advocacy to educate legislators and combat anti-solar policies.
Meeting former TXSES Chairman Micah Jasuta and listening to his presentation was an absolute honor. Witnessing people’s enthusiasm for the possibilities offered by solar energy and their commitment to taking the first step toward cleaner energy was inspiring.
We enjoyed reconnecting with our existing business members and making new acquaintances, including potential members interested in joining our cause. We eagerly anticipate participating in this event again next year. Together, we can drive positive change and advance the adoption of distributed solar energy in Texas.
Interested in becoming our newest TXSES business member? Call 512.264.4372 or click sugalde@txses.org
For nearly two years now, a coalition of clean energy developers, advocates, and experts from across the U.S. has been working to develop a better understanding of how to build the least-cost, most reliable grid possible. The outcome of this work by the Local Solar for All (“LS4A”) coalition (localsolarforall.org) documents the exciting and money-saving potential that better models and analysis reveals is available from aggressive growth in the distributed solar and storage markets.
The LS4A team joined forces with Vibrant Clean Energy, a modeling firm based in Boulder, Colorado to use a new utility planning model called WIS:dom-P (“Weather-Informed energy Systems: for design, operations and markets”) to break through the limits of old-style utility models and, for the first time, understand the role that solar + storage distributed resources can play in decarbonizing our economy in an affordable and sustainable way.
The WIS:dom-P model was built to thrive in big data in a way that the old models simply can’t handle. With 10,000 times more data points and a resolution down to five minutes, three square kilometers, and one kilowatt, the model can identify the right resource in the right place at the right time to serve demand for electricity most economically. Not only can the model evaluate both large and small resources (below the 69 kV grid level), it also evaluates each kind of supply along with the cost to transmit and distribute it. Solving for electricity demand from a systems perspective reveals new savings opportunities across 80% of the hours in the year.
These amazing benefits arise for several reasons—some expected and some delightfully surprising. Because distributed solar and storage match better with load, these right-sized resources reduce over-building of expensive generation. The WIS:dom-P model can also identify when more expensive local resources are actually a better deal than cheaper resources when accounting for transmission and distribution costs. Even more amazing, the model shows how distributed resources actually reshape the system load that the utility system must serve, getting higher value and more savings out of the large-scale resources, especially wind and solar, as well.
The LS4A team launched its campaign with a study of the lower 48 U.S. states and learned that by optimizing and coordinating distributed solar and storage in utility system planning, the U.S. could eliminate 95% of the carbon emissions from the electric system and save nearly $500 billion in total system costs compared to a business-as-usual approach. The least-cost system has 247,000 MW of distributed solar by the year 2050 and relies on more than 9,000 GWh of utility and distributed storage, about evenly split, by the same date. A distributed solar and storage future also includes two million more jobs than the business-as-usual approach.
The LS4A coalition is planning even more analysis, including evaluation of proposals under discussion at the federal level. And since releasing the first national study, the team has studied the grids in Illinois, California, and New York and added evaluation of economy-wide electrification and impacts on environmentally and economically disadvantaged communities. Every study shows that the savings and other benefits only grow with these strategies. The future is clearly going to be much more distributed—with solar and storage—if we want an affordable, low-carbon energy economy.
Karl’s career spans more than 30 years in clean energy, electricity regulation, sustainability and advocacy. Experienced as a public utility commissioner, he’s also been a federal R&D executive, utility executive, advocate, and attorney.
